MLB best bets: Royals vs. Mets odds, predictions, pick for Saturday 4/13

Royals vs. Mets Odds

Saturday, April 13, 1:40 p.m. ET, SNY

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Kansas City Royals

Right-hander Alec Marsh gets the ball for Kansas City on Saturday, and he should be a good sell-high candidate. Marsh put together a troubling rookie campaign in 2023, posting a 3-9 record with a 5.69 ERA and 1.56 WHIP through 17 appearances on the mound.

Through his first two starts this year, the right-hander is 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Has the 25-year-old figured it out in his sophomore season?

His underlying metrics suggest he has not, and that regression is looming around the corner. Currently, Marsh ranks in the 42nd percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and Hard-Hit%.

Following Marsh is a bullpen that is also primed for regression. Entering this matchup, the Royals' relief pitching ranks ninth in FIP but 28th in xFIP.

New York Mets

Meanwhile, left-hander Sean Manaea takes the mound for New York. Manaea has gotten off to a tremendous start in 2024, posting a 1-0 record with a 0.82 ERA and 0.73 WHIP through his first two starts.

The difference between Marsh and Manaea is that the latter's analytics are a lot less skeptical about the amount of regression we should expect moving forward. Entering this matchup, Manaea ranks in the 58th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and Hard-Hit%.

Additionally, he mowed down the Royals when he last faced them in April 2023. In that outing, Manaea allowed just one run on three hits through six innings pitched while striking out eight.

The reason he did not win that game is that San Francisco's bullpen (his team at the time) fell apart. That will likely not be the case this time around as the Mets' relief pitching ranks in the top 10 of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.

Royals vs. Mets

Betting Pick & Prediction

New York possesses the advantage in both starting and relief pitching. The other variable to look at is hitting, the one area in which Kansas City possesses the advantage.

With that said, could regression be looming for the Royals in that department as well? Perhaps, or perhaps not. But this is still a group that finished 2023 in the bottom 12 of the league in BA, SLG and wOBA.

Subsequently, when considering all of these variables, I believe there is more value in backing the Mets -1.5 at +130 rather than laying -158 on the moneyline.

Pick: Mets -1.5 (+130 at FanDuel | Play to +125)